While it doesn't negate the overall point of your post, the situation here in Portugal is a bit more complicated. The Socialist party in the government, currently in the minority, exercised their right to request that the new law be reviewed by the Supreme Court for constitutionality. The court found that 4 provisions violated the constitution. Accordingly, the President vetoed the entire law. Now it is back in parliament, where the the ruling parties will attempt to rework it to address these issues and try to pass it again.
At this point no one knows for certain what the final provisions will be, if it will be challenged again, etc. If I had to bet I would say it is almost certain there will be a longer wait time than the current 5 years, somewhere between 7 and 10. As to the issue of when the clock starts ticking, that seems less certain to me . And white unlikely, I don't think it's completely impossible that their coukd be some sort of transitional regime for those who have residency. There have been so many twists and turns already!
Overall, things have changed so much and so quickly in Portugal, some due to immigration, vastly increased second homers and tourism, etc., and some just broader macroeconomic factors. The government has not been effective at addressing the very real needs of the people for affordable housing and higher wages, and as you point out, immigration is a quick and convenient place to put the blame. Sounds very familiar to us Americans these days!
Okay, sorry for the very long comment. I hope it is helpful in some way!
You're right that the final timeline could land somewhere between 7 and 10, and the clock start date might change in revision. I presented the worst case, but there's genuine uncertainty in how parliament rewrites this.
And yes, the parallels to the US immigration debate are hard to miss. Let's see how it all works out in the end.
As a 4+ year resident of Portugal, I mostly agree with what you said. However, I'm pretty pessimistic about the law becoming any more favorable with regard to timelines and when the clock starts for citizenship elibility. This is because the center-right party that controls government (PSD) now is desparately trying to fend off the rise of the far-right party (Chega). Chega's main issue is immigration so PSD is pretty much giving them as much of what they want in regards to immigration & nationality as they can get away with constitutionally. Anti-immigrant sentitment is pretty wide and deep in Portugal these days. My Portuguese teacher at one point told me she wished all Americans would leave, and this is someone who makes her living teaching Portuguese to foreigners.
I also want to correct one thing in the original post, which is that it is pretty rare for it to take longer than a year for someone to get their original residence permit. A couple of months is more typical. The real wait is after you apply for citizenship - it takes 2-4 years to process an application. So if the worst case it took a year to get your first residence card, you would have to wait 11 years before you could apply, and then it could take 3-4 years to actually get your passport, for a total of 14-15 yaers in total. The government has less than zero motivation to improve any processes around immigration because immigrants don't vote! You can also run into numerous headaches whle waiting for citizenship (if that's your goal). You have to renew your residence first after 2 years and then every 3. People are running into all kinds of issues with the renewal process, with requirements being unclear and different from one office to another, and probably even between one officer and another. I heard about one person with a retirement portfolio of several million being denied because they had "insufficient resources" to remain in Portugal. The Portuguese government understands pensions and social security, but they apparently don't understand the concept of living off of an investment portfolio. After being here over four years and seeing what a lot of my friends have been going through with their renewals, I've come to the conclusion that the government is passive-aggressively making everything as difficult as possible in hopes that people will get fed up and leave.
If you are thinking of coming to Portugal, assume that you will never get citizenship if a second citizenship is what you're after. I think they are going to keep making it harder and harder until it becomes impossible for all practical purposes.
Also, a lot of us are concerned about what is going to happen if (when?) the US attacks an EU country. So far it doesn't seem like people are holding any of America's actions against us as individuals but I can't help but feeling that we wil be become increasingly unwelcome if things continue as they have been. For a whole host of reasons, things just feel a lot riskier than they did before 2025. I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet, but anyone thinking of coming here needs to really do their homework and not get seduced by the TikTok and Instagram version of Portugal.
Thanks for writing this up Ken! This "on the ground" info is very helpful. I agree that it's becoming increasingly difficult. And the sentiment towards US immigrants is surely something to watch out for. Luckily there are plenty of options around the world to go to. Bu as you said, "do your homework" and don't believe the social media stories. I keep reminding people of that. Thanks for this thoughtful input!
Have visited several of the mentioned countries, lived in Asia, have visited all 50 states, and have been interested in the prospect of a “better place”, but wonder what is one actually getting? Is there a real tangible value (e.g. cheaper prices/better health care/safety) or is it just an escape from the frustration and dissatisfaction with one’s current country?
Either one is wealthy enough for a second house to own/maintain and traveling back and forth or the move is permanent and funds are limited. In the later case, one spends the rest of their life living in a different country with its own frustrations and disappointments. The “exit plan” is limited due to costs. Being the mark in some country’s bailout due to financial mis-management, and then resented, doesn’t sound fun.
As a US Citizen and Veteran I’d move for two reasons that I can think of now: healthcare; and guns. Notice I didn’t say politics. As much as I despise the current situation I like to believe that the social pendulum is at an extreme and will swing back. Or not. However, the genie is out of the bottle on health care and the system is rigged to extract as much as possible before you die. People vote against their own interests when offered reform. Even more serious is that there is no walking back the situation on guns in the US - it’s part of this country’s DNA and people are willing to die and kill for them. Other than to make money, there was no logical reason to proliferate the country with military grade weapons to the general population that is mentally unstable, financially desperate, and increasingly dependent on drugs and alcohol. I’ve known people that have taken their life and those that have murdered and I never saw it coming. Another tragic shooting will occur soon. The cost of this cycle is a huge drag on our society.
So, a country that offers stability, safety, and decent healthcare and a low cost of living would be attractive. Not having to shovel snow would also be nice. Frankly, I’m not sure that this place exists. So, I think I’d opt for one of the Scandinavian countries and pay for the shoveling. Until then my not so cheap Blue State and ability to travel is not bad.
I left because of frustration too. But I traded one set of frustrations for another. The question is which ones you can live with.
In my case: I traded German taxes and grey winters for sunshine but slower, less predictable systems. Worth it for me. Might not be for you.
You mentioned healthcare and guns. Those are solvable abroad. Dozens of countries have affordable healthcare that won't bankrupt you and gun violence rates a fraction of the US.
"Stable, safe, decent healthcare, low cost of living, no snow" is a real list you can filter for.
Happy to point you toward some if you want to get specific. Feel free to DM me!
Yes, New England is also pretty grey and cold this time of year. Have lived in warm climates and the tropics, but as you say, it’s slower. Maybe I can deal with it now that I’m older. I thought Italy or Portugal would be nice, but it looks like they’ve closed the doors.
Exceptional analysis of how governments weaponize their own promises. The part about countries being politically convenient to launch during crises and convenient to end after really nails it. I watched something similar with a family friend who got caught in the Cyprus program collapse and it was brutal watching them scramble. The six questions framework is gold, especially the exit strategy point most poeple overlook.
Wow! That's a pretty powerful post. As a wannabe expat, I constantly get bombarded by "easy citizenship" schemes vs. "fastest way to residency" posts on FB and Insta. Based on the above, the citizenship schemes seem more likely to change mid-stream, whereas residency requirements may have more stability over the long term. Does that make residency a more stable option for expats? Meanwhile, I'm scanning $400k passport schemes in Turkey because a doomsday Substacker just warned us to find alternative citizenship options asap. I really don't think I want to live in Turkey, so why am I even looking? It's because I'm constantly wondering if my two passports are plenty or not enough! I know there's no definitive answer, but it is reassuring to think that residency might actually be less controversial (thus more stable) expat path than citizenship. And less expensive! It's great how you push us to think through the available options... Thank you for the in-depth perspective!
You’re welcome welcome Lorraine! Residency is not necessarily more “stable” than citizenship. But residency is usually faster and cheaper than getting a second passport. A second passport is a big decision, and my take is that the promises should be upheld when it comes to such as time and capital intensive investment decision.
Like Greece, also Cyprus and Ireland it’s about money laundering, embezzlement by states to milk the taxpayers and investors. My friends from Shanghai have paid for lawyers a fortune just to regulate this governmental scam in Portugal. Ireland has such low corporate tax that every overseas vulture takes advantage to be in the EU and exactly this is the reason why EU will collapse before 2030.
Fantastic breakdown. We often think of countries as highly stable and consistent so we think their policies won’t change. Countries are more similar to businesses than we realise. Slow to change but they do change, especially when there’s a change of CEO/government/economy.
I tend to look at them like stocks and shares in my portfolio. Would I invest there (time, money, business banking etc.) and what’s the risk if the “business” has a bad quarter?
I used to choose on the weather and lifestyle (half joking!) but now, they have to worth investing in.
Would love a breakdown of western vs eastern countries. Is the west somewhere we can still trust or has the east got more to offer?
Thank you so much for this. I actually looked into moving there 20 years ago as I did with other countries but resisted.
“In the past four years, the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain have all ended their Golden Visa programs. Portugal eliminated real estate as a qualifying investment. Greece doubled or tripled the minimum threshold in popular areas. Cyprus shut down its citizenship scheme after a corruption scandal.”
Thanks Glen! There will always be other programs. As long as you not only keep track what the brochure says, but what's actually reality, you will find your suitable program.
Regarding indefinite legal residency: The problem is that residency visas are subject to the same political whims as Golden Visa programs. Visa requirements and availability can change at any time. They are also easy to revoke.
Currently, staying legal is often an arduous and unpredictable process. In Portugal, the same backlog in issuing Golden Visas is occurring in resident visa renewals. Many resident visa holders with expired visas are in limbo because Portugal cannot schedule them for the mandatory renewal interview. And there is no guarantee that renewal will be granted when they do get an interview.
Very good question. As D.A. said, visas can always be subjective to political changes. Think about the changes in the US at the moment, or the Brexit cases, when EU ppl lost their right to work after UK exited. A legitimately obtained passport is much harder for any government to touch.
I dodged a massive bullet here. I was literally days away from making my golden visa investment in Portugal when Congress passed the rules change, and had spent a couple months frantically getting my documents together and had my investment money in escrow.
My hope was to get in under the wire where the old rules (5 year wait towards citizenship) still applied.
Of course it is 100% Portugal’s prerogative if they want to change their immigration laws. HOWEVER it is a completely different story to change the rules on the 50,000 people midway through their process. These are folks who made massive investments and upended their lives based on a promise (a seemingly legally binding promise) that the Portuguese State made and is no reneging on with no transition period, no recourse and seemingly with no care.
I just now found you and subscribed, so I cannot send you an email to get the “retire abroad priority list“. Is there an alternative way to get on the list? Thank you.
While it doesn't negate the overall point of your post, the situation here in Portugal is a bit more complicated. The Socialist party in the government, currently in the minority, exercised their right to request that the new law be reviewed by the Supreme Court for constitutionality. The court found that 4 provisions violated the constitution. Accordingly, the President vetoed the entire law. Now it is back in parliament, where the the ruling parties will attempt to rework it to address these issues and try to pass it again.
At this point no one knows for certain what the final provisions will be, if it will be challenged again, etc. If I had to bet I would say it is almost certain there will be a longer wait time than the current 5 years, somewhere between 7 and 10. As to the issue of when the clock starts ticking, that seems less certain to me . And white unlikely, I don't think it's completely impossible that their coukd be some sort of transitional regime for those who have residency. There have been so many twists and turns already!
Overall, things have changed so much and so quickly in Portugal, some due to immigration, vastly increased second homers and tourism, etc., and some just broader macroeconomic factors. The government has not been effective at addressing the very real needs of the people for affordable housing and higher wages, and as you point out, immigration is a quick and convenient place to put the blame. Sounds very familiar to us Americans these days!
Okay, sorry for the very long comment. I hope it is helpful in some way!
Thanks Bryan, this is really helpful context.
You're right that the final timeline could land somewhere between 7 and 10, and the clock start date might change in revision. I presented the worst case, but there's genuine uncertainty in how parliament rewrites this.
And yes, the parallels to the US immigration debate are hard to miss. Let's see how it all works out in the end.
Thanks for taking the time to write this out!
Please don't apologize! Brevity doesn't offer thorough opportunity for thoughtful analysis.
CBS NEWS died today in the USA) Purchased by another fucking Oligarch; American Oligarch.
The new platform stated only that experts such as scholars , scientists, educators etc will no longer be consulted in the making of CBS news stories.
The news will come from "regular"American people.
More dysfunctional propaganda making. More smearing of bias ignorance and hate.
More dumbing down so "regular " people can be controlled and manipulated and exploited by the Oligarchy.
Thanks for your post.
Thanks Jon, appreciate it :)
As a 4+ year resident of Portugal, I mostly agree with what you said. However, I'm pretty pessimistic about the law becoming any more favorable with regard to timelines and when the clock starts for citizenship elibility. This is because the center-right party that controls government (PSD) now is desparately trying to fend off the rise of the far-right party (Chega). Chega's main issue is immigration so PSD is pretty much giving them as much of what they want in regards to immigration & nationality as they can get away with constitutionally. Anti-immigrant sentitment is pretty wide and deep in Portugal these days. My Portuguese teacher at one point told me she wished all Americans would leave, and this is someone who makes her living teaching Portuguese to foreigners.
I also want to correct one thing in the original post, which is that it is pretty rare for it to take longer than a year for someone to get their original residence permit. A couple of months is more typical. The real wait is after you apply for citizenship - it takes 2-4 years to process an application. So if the worst case it took a year to get your first residence card, you would have to wait 11 years before you could apply, and then it could take 3-4 years to actually get your passport, for a total of 14-15 yaers in total. The government has less than zero motivation to improve any processes around immigration because immigrants don't vote! You can also run into numerous headaches whle waiting for citizenship (if that's your goal). You have to renew your residence first after 2 years and then every 3. People are running into all kinds of issues with the renewal process, with requirements being unclear and different from one office to another, and probably even between one officer and another. I heard about one person with a retirement portfolio of several million being denied because they had "insufficient resources" to remain in Portugal. The Portuguese government understands pensions and social security, but they apparently don't understand the concept of living off of an investment portfolio. After being here over four years and seeing what a lot of my friends have been going through with their renewals, I've come to the conclusion that the government is passive-aggressively making everything as difficult as possible in hopes that people will get fed up and leave.
If you are thinking of coming to Portugal, assume that you will never get citizenship if a second citizenship is what you're after. I think they are going to keep making it harder and harder until it becomes impossible for all practical purposes.
Also, a lot of us are concerned about what is going to happen if (when?) the US attacks an EU country. So far it doesn't seem like people are holding any of America's actions against us as individuals but I can't help but feeling that we wil be become increasingly unwelcome if things continue as they have been. For a whole host of reasons, things just feel a lot riskier than they did before 2025. I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet, but anyone thinking of coming here needs to really do their homework and not get seduced by the TikTok and Instagram version of Portugal.
Thanks for writing this up Ken! This "on the ground" info is very helpful. I agree that it's becoming increasingly difficult. And the sentiment towards US immigrants is surely something to watch out for. Luckily there are plenty of options around the world to go to. Bu as you said, "do your homework" and don't believe the social media stories. I keep reminding people of that. Thanks for this thoughtful input!
Have visited several of the mentioned countries, lived in Asia, have visited all 50 states, and have been interested in the prospect of a “better place”, but wonder what is one actually getting? Is there a real tangible value (e.g. cheaper prices/better health care/safety) or is it just an escape from the frustration and dissatisfaction with one’s current country?
Either one is wealthy enough for a second house to own/maintain and traveling back and forth or the move is permanent and funds are limited. In the later case, one spends the rest of their life living in a different country with its own frustrations and disappointments. The “exit plan” is limited due to costs. Being the mark in some country’s bailout due to financial mis-management, and then resented, doesn’t sound fun.
As a US Citizen and Veteran I’d move for two reasons that I can think of now: healthcare; and guns. Notice I didn’t say politics. As much as I despise the current situation I like to believe that the social pendulum is at an extreme and will swing back. Or not. However, the genie is out of the bottle on health care and the system is rigged to extract as much as possible before you die. People vote against their own interests when offered reform. Even more serious is that there is no walking back the situation on guns in the US - it’s part of this country’s DNA and people are willing to die and kill for them. Other than to make money, there was no logical reason to proliferate the country with military grade weapons to the general population that is mentally unstable, financially desperate, and increasingly dependent on drugs and alcohol. I’ve known people that have taken their life and those that have murdered and I never saw it coming. Another tragic shooting will occur soon. The cost of this cycle is a huge drag on our society.
So, a country that offers stability, safety, and decent healthcare and a low cost of living would be attractive. Not having to shovel snow would also be nice. Frankly, I’m not sure that this place exists. So, I think I’d opt for one of the Scandinavian countries and pay for the shoveling. Until then my not so cheap Blue State and ability to travel is not bad.
Thanks for your time to write this up Dave.
I left because of frustration too. But I traded one set of frustrations for another. The question is which ones you can live with.
In my case: I traded German taxes and grey winters for sunshine but slower, less predictable systems. Worth it for me. Might not be for you.
You mentioned healthcare and guns. Those are solvable abroad. Dozens of countries have affordable healthcare that won't bankrupt you and gun violence rates a fraction of the US.
"Stable, safe, decent healthcare, low cost of living, no snow" is a real list you can filter for.
Happy to point you toward some if you want to get specific. Feel free to DM me!
Yes, New England is also pretty grey and cold this time of year. Have lived in warm climates and the tropics, but as you say, it’s slower. Maybe I can deal with it now that I’m older. I thought Italy or Portugal would be nice, but it looks like they’ve closed the doors.
Yeah, UK is very that time of the year. Just got back from Germany to Thailand, +30 degrees overnight def helps with the mood ;)
Exceptional analysis of how governments weaponize their own promises. The part about countries being politically convenient to launch during crises and convenient to end after really nails it. I watched something similar with a family friend who got caught in the Cyprus program collapse and it was brutal watching them scramble. The six questions framework is gold, especially the exit strategy point most poeple overlook.
Thank you! Yes, Cyprus is another great example. Always do your due diligence, and be aware of the shifting landscape, especially in Europe right now.
Wow! That's a pretty powerful post. As a wannabe expat, I constantly get bombarded by "easy citizenship" schemes vs. "fastest way to residency" posts on FB and Insta. Based on the above, the citizenship schemes seem more likely to change mid-stream, whereas residency requirements may have more stability over the long term. Does that make residency a more stable option for expats? Meanwhile, I'm scanning $400k passport schemes in Turkey because a doomsday Substacker just warned us to find alternative citizenship options asap. I really don't think I want to live in Turkey, so why am I even looking? It's because I'm constantly wondering if my two passports are plenty or not enough! I know there's no definitive answer, but it is reassuring to think that residency might actually be less controversial (thus more stable) expat path than citizenship. And less expensive! It's great how you push us to think through the available options... Thank you for the in-depth perspective!
You’re welcome welcome Lorraine! Residency is not necessarily more “stable” than citizenship. But residency is usually faster and cheaper than getting a second passport. A second passport is a big decision, and my take is that the promises should be upheld when it comes to such as time and capital intensive investment decision.
Happy New Year
And Happy New Year to you! :)
Like Greece, also Cyprus and Ireland it’s about money laundering, embezzlement by states to milk the taxpayers and investors. My friends from Shanghai have paid for lawyers a fortune just to regulate this governmental scam in Portugal. Ireland has such low corporate tax that every overseas vulture takes advantage to be in the EU and exactly this is the reason why EU will collapse before 2030.
Sorry to hear about your friends in Portugal. The system has definitely left a lot of people feeling burned.
Retire! Thanks for this article & Happy 2026!
Thanks Mokie, added you! And Happy 2026 to you too! ;)
Fantastic breakdown. We often think of countries as highly stable and consistent so we think their policies won’t change. Countries are more similar to businesses than we realise. Slow to change but they do change, especially when there’s a change of CEO/government/economy.
I tend to look at them like stocks and shares in my portfolio. Would I invest there (time, money, business banking etc.) and what’s the risk if the “business” has a bad quarter?
I used to choose on the weather and lifestyle (half joking!) but now, they have to worth investing in.
Would love a breakdown of western vs eastern countries. Is the west somewhere we can still trust or has the east got more to offer?
That's a great framing.
And Western vs Eastern is a great breakdown idea. This is so obvious that my first thought was, why I didn't have this on my agenda earlier :D
The old assumption was "West = stable, East = risky."
But this is worth examining in more detail. Adding this to my list! :)
Retire
Thanks Sandra, you can either subscribe or send me your e-mail via DM, then I can add you to the list ;)
RETIRE
Thanks Patrick, you can either subscribe or send me your e-mail via DM, then I can add you to the list ;)
Retire
Thanks Joe, you can either subscribe or send me your e-mail via DM, then I can add you to the list ;)
Thank you so much for this. I actually looked into moving there 20 years ago as I did with other countries but resisted.
“In the past four years, the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain have all ended their Golden Visa programs. Portugal eliminated real estate as a qualifying investment. Greece doubled or tripled the minimum threshold in popular areas. Cyprus shut down its citizenship scheme after a corruption scandal.”
Thanks Glen! There will always be other programs. As long as you not only keep track what the brochure says, but what's actually reality, you will find your suitable program.
I really wanted to move to #Montenegro but didn’t have the money required to purchase a citizenship. That place is amazing.
I mean do most expats even care about citizenship? As long as they can live there legally indefinitely?
Citizenship interest is the same question I had.
Regarding indefinite legal residency: The problem is that residency visas are subject to the same political whims as Golden Visa programs. Visa requirements and availability can change at any time. They are also easy to revoke.
Currently, staying legal is often an arduous and unpredictable process. In Portugal, the same backlog in issuing Golden Visas is occurring in resident visa renewals. Many resident visa holders with expired visas are in limbo because Portugal cannot schedule them for the mandatory renewal interview. And there is no guarantee that renewal will be granted when they do get an interview.
Very good question. As D.A. said, visas can always be subjective to political changes. Think about the changes in the US at the moment, or the Brexit cases, when EU ppl lost their right to work after UK exited. A legitimately obtained passport is much harder for any government to touch.
Excellent post. I am interested in your “retire” information- thank you, and Happy New Year!
And Happy New Year to you too!
I dodged a massive bullet here. I was literally days away from making my golden visa investment in Portugal when Congress passed the rules change, and had spent a couple months frantically getting my documents together and had my investment money in escrow.
My hope was to get in under the wire where the old rules (5 year wait towards citizenship) still applied.
Of course it is 100% Portugal’s prerogative if they want to change their immigration laws. HOWEVER it is a completely different story to change the rules on the 50,000 people midway through their process. These are folks who made massive investments and upended their lives based on a promise (a seemingly legally binding promise) that the Portuguese State made and is no reneging on with no transition period, no recourse and seemingly with no care.
Thanks Janet! Sure thing, you can either subscribe (then I see your mail) or send me your e-mail via DM, then I will add you to the list ;)
Retire
Hey Justince, you can either subscribe or send me your e-mail via DM and I will add you to the list ;)
I just now found you and subscribed, so I cannot send you an email to get the “retire abroad priority list“. Is there an alternative way to get on the list? Thank you.
Hey John, thanks, I just added you!
Thanks!