Where To Move In Case Of World War 3
Safe havens in an unsafe world.
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Is Everyone Just Nuts Right Now?
When Israel attacked Iran, I asked myself this question a second time this year.
And when clashes between Thailand and Cambodia started just around the corner from where I live, a third time.
And then I asked …
Where would I go if another World War breaks out?
I’m not saying this will happen. But I like to think in scenarios.
I’m working as a consultant, and one thing I do in many projects, is to evaluate project risks. And in order to do so, I map potential risks in a risk-matrix.
Some risks are very likely to happen, some very unlikely. But even very unlikely ones, if their occurrence has dramatic repercussions, will have to be mitigated by some sort of risk measure in place.
Basically it was all about “Severity” and “Likelihood” (which were also the 2 axis on the risk matrix graph).
Now, am I smart enough to place the risk of World War 3 somewhere on this matrix?
No. Not a clue. And I don’t like fear mongering.
But what I can do, is to ask myself the question
“If it happens, what would I do?“
… and in the case of this article
“If it happens, where would I go?”
How Likely Is Another World War?
Let’s think about global risks.
Not in a political way, but from a big-picture view. Who is in power? What decisions are being made? And where are things most likely to go wrong?
One useful tool is the Global Conflict Tracker from the Council on Foreign Relations. It shows where conflicts are happening and which ones could get worse.
So what does the data show us?
According to the CFR, 2025 has the highest number of serious conflict risks since they began tracking.
And the Uppsala Conflict Data Program says 2024 had the most wars and battle deaths since World War Two.
So yes, the risk is real and rising.
In this post, I want to take a step back and look at the world through a systems lens.
If global tensions grow, which countries are safest to move to?